The next generation of usability
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re-thinking the mobile device
Mark Lowenstein |
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| Mark Lowenstein, Managing
Director of Mobile Ecosystem, is a veteran industry analyst, consultant,
and commentator. He founded and led the Yankee Group's wireless practices
on a global basis for ten years prior to establishing Mobile Ecosystem
in 2001. He consults with senior management across the wireless value
chain and regularly speaks at corporate events. As one of the industry's
senior thought leaders, Lowenstein writes a monthly opinion column for
Wireless Week. In receiver, he sets up ten principles
for optimizing the user experience in the face of an explosion of wireless
applications and the fast growth of both network and device capabilities. |
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This is a notable year, in that
we're celebrating a quarter century of widely available commercial cellular
services. Wireless as a mass market voice service is a global phenomenon.
We have also created an entirely new market in wireless data, driven by
text messaging, mobile email, and "personalization" of the device
through ringtones, wallpaper, and other applications.
It has also become apparent to me during 2005 that we are on the cusp of
major change in what wireless services represent. The next phase of this
industry will, I believe, be driven by four factors: |
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Increasing substitution of wireless
for wireline. Today, wireless represents about 25% of all voice
traffic on the network. But in countries with very attractive pricing,
such as high "bucket minute" or flat rate plans, we are
seeing wireless being used as the primary, or only, phone for voice.
The substitution trend will accelerate. |
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Wireless becomes a broader messaging
device. Text messaging has been the first wave, but there is
now a concerted attempt to extend wireless email usage from today's
sub-10% penetration into more of a standard service on mobile devices.
There will also be myriad additional messaging options, such as instant
messaging, "visual voicemail", and blogging. |
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Wireless Data Phase II. The deployment
of 3G networks and devices will usher in a new wave of applications,
centered around music, video (streaming and downloads), and games. |
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Convergence. Broadband and VoIP
are becoming a disruptive force in the communications industry, altering
both network economics and the service provider landscape. We are
already seeing the first devices with WiFi capability, which will
allow for higher data speeds in hotspots plus the possibility of VoIP.
Also, standards such as UMA and IMS are being developed in recognition
that traditional boundaries between wireline and wireless, and voice
and data, are coming down. |
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| These themes require us to re-think
the user experience. Advances in device capability and functionality have
outpaced developments in form factor and usability. Text input capability
is adequate for SMS but a chore for anything more involved. There are also
now tens of thousands of applications available for mobile, but finding
them and navigating through them remains difficult. Furthermore, the experience
with the first wave of "converged" devices – PIM, multimedia,
and so on – has been mixed. It seems that user acceptance of devices
is inversely proportional to how much added, complex functionality we load
onto them. Blackberry, the iPod, and the Gameboy remain examples of devices
that are successful because they do one thing really well. |
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